Inside the Asylum

I've heard it said before that the wars of the 21st Century will be fought over water, not oil. Let's hope this isn't a taste of things to come, as the Chinese attempt to deal with their massive water shortage in the north by diverting water from the south, which has got the Indians concerned it's going to divert water running off the Himalayas away from them ...
At the same time, even parts of southern China are facing drought, something that's pretty unusual.

The Indian press is skeptical about China's recent expression of concern about India's missile program:

It is only the other day that China showed off its DongFeng 31A intercontinental ballistic missile, which has a range of 11,000 km capable of hitting targets in the United States. It was a major decision to display this missile for military experts around the world to watch and behold. Within a fortnight of displaying its power during the celebration for the 60th anniversary of the Chinese republic on October 1, a section of the country’s Communist Party appears worried about India’s decision to produce the Agni V missile.

In one sense, it's a very good thing that the world is moving beyond the stage where there are only one or two major centers of scientific and economic muscle. It'll certainly be good for the human race as a whole to have technology being advanced in multiple locations. I know Obama will be pleased if USA isn't in the center of everything (though I doubt it's for this reason). In another way it's not so good because it's going to lead to more of this kind of thing.

Indian Army Chief both talks tough and tries to downplay the troubles. An interesting balancing act.

Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor on Tuesday said the Army was "capable of defending" Indian territory and ward off any aggression... [but] "There is no provocation (through incursions) per se. There is nothing to be alarmed about it."

Here are a bunch of views, quoted in the Times of India.

Admiral Sureesh Mehta, retiring chairman of the chiefs of staff committee: "In military terms, both conventional and non-conventional , we neither have the capability nor the intention to match China. China is in the process of consolidating its national power and creating formidable military capabilities. Once that is done, China is likely to be more assertive in its claims."

"Pakistan is just a short, or at best, a medium-term threat. China is the actual longterm threat. There is concern about its strategic intent," said a top Army officer.

Western Air Command chief Air Marshal N A K Browne responded last week to a question on China, "We need to engage with everyone in our neighbourhood, but also keep our gunpowder dry".

"All this talk of the 'peaceful rise' of China should not lull us into sleep," says a senior army officer. He draws attention to Chinese deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles on the Tibetan plateau, which clearly target India.

Also interesting are the ways in which the Indians contemplate that they could retaliate against any Chinese attack, including blocking the strategic

sea lanes of the Indian Ocean through which come over 80% of Chinese crude oil imports. If choked, it could cripple the energy-guzzling dragon.

The article also talks about the ability of India to launch bombers to target high-value targets within China. The Indians are taking this stuff pretty seriously. Can you imagine if USA or China starting using this kind of language to talk about each other? All the newspapers would be proclaiming a new cold war or worse.
(See categories list on the right under India-China Relations for more posts on this kind of thing.)

The Indians are talking about problems on the border an awful lot. The Chinese only talk about it when they're saying there aren't any problems. Who is telling the truth? Who knows? One thing is for sure, the Indians are taking concrete steps to beef up their military capabilities along the disputed frontier.

IAF opens new airstrip in Ladakh nearer to China border. For the first time-ever, the Indian Air Force today landed an AN-32 transport aircraft at the Nyoma Advanced Landing Ground in eastern Ladakh, just 23 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

See related posts here, and here.
Oh heck ... there are too many posts to link them all ... I'm going to create a new category over on the right. Have a look there if you're interested.

I've been quite impressed with what I've seen of Al Jazeera. This may be because since I moved to the United States, I've been starved of decent news reporting. US news is seriously crap, unless you're interested in ... well, I'm not exactly sure what, since it seems to have about zero news content. Whatever the case may be, here's a clip from them about the India-China border problems.

Here's an older clip from July, about Indian deployment of tanks to the border. Particularly interesting (if you don't mind reading a lot of vulgarity, is the incredibly racist slanging match going on in the comments between Chinese and Indian supporters... "curry eating" and "slanty eyed" are about the most tame bits ...

Here's the story:

“The China-India relationship is currently enjoying stable developments, and the mutual trust between two sides is keeping growing. Therefore, we are facing a favorable situation in solving the border issue,” the [Chinese] foreign ministry said in reply to questions sent by TNN...The Chinese foreign ministry’s view is that the problem has to do with improper reporting by the Indian media and not on the ground situation on the border... “There has been no usual development on the border. Why is the Indian media indulging in rumor mongering?” Chen Yongcheng, a former diplomat and Council Member of the China Foundation of International Studies, said.

So, what's the truth? Could it be a creation of Indian media? Certainly could be. Can Chinese denials be trusted? Never. So what's the truth? I've no idea. I'll keep posting on the subject. Maybe some light will eventually shine on the matter.

It seems that the Indians have been reacting even while avoiding heated rhetoric.

A massive upgrade of infrastructure and military capabilities is under way along the disputed India-China border in a bid to be prepared for any misadventures from the other side. To this end, a huge jump in military strength along the border is under way. While a decision to locate Sukhoi-30 fighters at Tezpur from June 2009 has already been announced, the Indian Air Force (IAF) may also beef up its presence in the Chabua airbase and maintain heli-lift capabilities in other parts of the north-east... The absence of noise from the military leadership on the alleged Chinese incursions is because India wants to be discreet about its build-up.

I read this, and I thought "holy crap!" I don't pretend to understand what's going on, I can just tell you that it's getting worse day by day.

Simmering tensions along the mountainous frontier with China appear to have become serious with a revelation that two jawans of
the Indo-Tibetan Border Police, the sentinel force along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), were injured in bullets fired from the Chinese side.

I had embedded a video of an Indian news story here, but the blasted thing kept automatically playing every time you open this website. I've no idea how to stop it doing that, so it's gone.

What the heck is going on here? There doesn't seem to be any good reason for India and China to get into a face-to-face confrontation, but if this goes on much longer, Delhi is going to be pressured into taking a more confrontational approach than its current "softly softly" handling of the various Chinese provocations. There's this:

The Chinese army has done some construction activities along the international border across Karakoram ranges in Ladakh sector forthe first time since the 1962 stand-off between the two countries

and

In a related development, the report of Jammu and Kashmir government highlights the Chinese incursions into various parts of Ladakh. "They (Chinese) have threatened the nomadic people who had been using Dokbug area (in Ladakh sector) area for grazing since decades long, in a way to snatch our land in inches. A Chinese proverb is famous in the world - better do in inches than in yards," the report filed by a former Sub Divisional Magistrate (Nyoma) Tsering Norboo said.

and then there's this:

A Chinese military expert has accused India of "violating" Beijing's diplomatic rights and "spying" on its military ware while inspecting the cargo plane of the UAE Air Force which was detained in Kolkata.

Here's some of the domestic pressure that's starting to build in India:

BJP chief Rajnath Singh has expressed concern over reports of Chinese intrusion into Indian territory and accused the Centre of keeping mum on the issue. "Why is the Congress leadership mum on the issue? The Army chief was compelled to speak. That Gen Deepak Kapoor had to express concern shows the situation is serious. The political leadership should be expressing this concern," Singh told reporters... He reminded the ruling Congress that even in 1962, India was in a state of denial when China intruded into the country and the issue finally flared up into a full scale war.

The first signs of a hardening Indian position can be seen with this:

India is not likely to stop the Dalai Lama from visiting Arunachal Pradesh in November, even after China's public whinge.

It's not as if USA is going to be able to sit on the side-lines if this gets worse ... USA is getting increasingly involved with the sale of military hardware to India.

The US government cleared yet another high technology system for India, the ‘‘futuristic’’ shipboard Hawkeye E-2D aircraft for Airborne Early Warning (AEW) and battle management... Like the Boeing P 8I Maritime Multi-mission Aircraft (MMA), of which the Indian Navy has already ordered eight aircraft, the Hawkeye E-2D is the very latest and is yet to be delivered to the US Navy.

Again I ask: what the heck is going on? I've been posting on India-China tensions for a little while now. It seems to be simmering away, never quite coming to the boil ... but if it does? I don't even want to think about the immediate consequences, and the ripple effects would sweep around the world like a tsunami.

There's an interesting discussion going on here on that topic. Including this comment:

Its high time that government takes some concrete steps to prevent a repeat of the 1962 and to prove to the world that we indeed are a Super-Power..........

As I mentioned earlier, 1962 was when China sucker-punched the Indians.
But it's OK, the Chinese say there's nothing going on.

China does not encroach on other countries' airspace, said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu Tuesday at a press conference... Indian reports which said there had been military friction between China and India along their mutual borderline recently were groundless, she said.

Didn't I tell you there was more going on in that Chinese editorial than met the eye? Here's something from the Indian side of the story:

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at Delhi's Centre for Policy Research. ''Things are getting really intense and from the Indian perspective outrageous.'' More aggressive border patrolling by Chinese forces including incursions into Indian territory has forced the Indian army to bolster its presence along the 3500-kilometre border, analysts claim... Feathers were ruffled in Delhi last week when the Indian media said Google satellite maps mysteriously showed the names of several towns in Arunachal Pradesh in Mandarin, not English or Hindi, making it appear the region was part of China.

Then there's also this:

India's foreign policy establishment was rattled by Indian media reports that a think tank linked to the Chinese military had called for India to be split into 30 independent states. The paper said that if China ''takes a little action, the so-called great Indian federation can be broken up''.

I've been following some discussion of this for a few days now ... and as one member of a list serve I belong to commented ... China is probably at least as much at risk of breaking up, so they really ought to be a bit more careful about such talk. It's hard to say just exactly how official this point of view is ... it's unlikely in the extreme to be official doctrine of Beijing ... but in China there's always the potential of the military going its own way. The last time China broke up, the only coherent body that was left was the military ... until it in turn fractured with the death of the only man most of the generals owed loyalty to (Yuan Shikai in 1915). Even then after the country disintegrated, the only groups who maintained any semblance of order were the sub-units of the Chinese military. It wasn't called the Warlord Period for nothing.

There have already been minor signs of independence from the military during the US spy-plane crisis and concerning Taiwan policy. Heck, the way things work in China, the troop incursions across the Indian border are more likely to do with internal Chinese politics, and the fallout in Sino-India relations is just a side effect. Watch the Chinese media ... if you suddenly see a flurry of reports about how incredibly loyal the military is, with lots of little stories of individual devotion to the Party, then you know the leadership in Beijing is getting concerned.

China's Xinhua reports:

Both sides agreed to press ahead with the framework negotiations in accordance with the agreed political parameters and guiding principle so as to seek for a fair and reasonable solution acceptable to both countries. Prior to that, both sides should work together to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas... The Chinese side also emphasized that China and India have no other option than living in peace and developing side by side.

Historic note: in 1962 the Chinese sucker-punched the Indians, and militarily seized a whole pile of territory along their disputed border. I know a guy who worked in Indian intelligence at the time, and he said the Indians were caught completely by surprise. The Chinese grabbed what they wanted, and then declared a ceasefire. In essence, it was a further extension of their expansionary push into Tibet in 1950, and part of the logic of empire in which new possessions must always be secured by the acquisition of new possessions. If China is serious about there being no other option that living in peace and developing side by side, then she must withdraw all troops to the pre-war lines, and enter negotiations about the frontier in good faith. Otherwise, it's no different from being mugged, and then having the mugger call for peaceful negotiations about the contents of your wallet.