Inside the Asylum

I commented on the dangers of making-nice with less-than-friendly powers and forgetting your allies. I found this on a Ukrainian news website.

As U.S. President Barack Obama gears up to "reset" Russia relations, Ukraine is in disarray. The country is teetering between economic collapse, Russian influence, and vague promises of Western support. It will take decisive moves from Washington to help pull Ukraine back from the edge. At the least, Obama should visit ailing Ukraine and prove that good relations with Russia don`t meant forgetting the rest of the region... [In the Ukraine] politicians are desperate for quicker solutions, even ones that may not have Ukraine`s long-term interests in mind. Enter Moscow, which has provided loans to the tune of several billion dollars already to Kiev and is interested in buying up more Ukrainian properties and assets. Russia might not be acting out of mere kindness of heart; a campaign to regain its sphere of influence might be at work... Visible U.S. support for Ukraine is critical as the country struggles through the coming months.

As I said: Ukraine is screwed.

At least one country appears to have moderately objective media coverage of their presidential election.

Mongolia Chooses Lesser of Two Evils in Presidential Election

Can you imagine a major American media organ having a story headline like this?

Whenever Obama undercuts an American friend (often by trying to make friends with people who are never going to become American allies, like Hugo Chavez) everyone is watching. North Korea? Does Japan really expect Obama to back them up if push comes to shove? Do we really want to see Japan re-arming itself for effective offensive operations? Does Taiwan trust Obama to back them up against China? Worse still if China decides that the Americans wouldn't help. Do we really want to see a serious cross-straits crisis? If Israel concludes it can't rely on USA, then they have no other choice than to take action into their own hands. Russia very clearly believes that USA is an unreliable ally ... so Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, etc. ... the list of countries that ought to be nervous is too long to list. This is worse than stupid, and the consequences will last much longer than the term of a single president. Even if USA gets a decent president, other powers will remember that this means nothing because sooner or later there'll be another Carter-Obama, and they'll get sold down the river. Better to make alliances with less pleasant but more reliable partners than to tie yourself to USA for a decade or two until the inevitable betrayal.

Obama is so busy making-nice with people who really hate USA that he's screwing those who are supposed to be American allies.

A senior Israeli official complained that Washington under President Barack Obama - who has vowed to pursue Middle East peace talks as part of a changed approach to the region - is placing unfair demands on the Jewish state. "The Americans have demanded almost nothing from the Palestinians but are asking Israel to take steps that are a real sacrifice. These demands are unfair," he told AFP on condition of anonymity. "The Palestinians are taking a passive approach. They're not even ready to meet the Israeli side, and Abu Mazen (Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas) wants the Americans to do all the work," he said.

Chinese take one look at Geithner and conclude that investments in USA are a bad risk.

On the first day of U.S. treasury secretary Timothy Geithner's visit to China, the Beijing-based Global Times published a survey of 23 famous Chinese economists on Sunday, saying that the majority of them deemed the vast holding of U.S. bonds "risky." Among the 23 experts polled, 17 said they believed that U.S. equities pose great risks to China's economy.

Yes, that's right. Finally Obama has kept a promise that he made before the election.

US President Barack Obama has fulfilled a pre-election promise by flying first lady Michelle to New York for a date. "I promised her during the campaign that I would take her to a Broadway show after it was all finished," the US president explained in a statement.

That's a relief. I was starting to think that Obama couldn't be trusted.

Hugo Chavez to talk for 4 days ... what a shame I'm washing my hair so won't have the chance to tune in.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's live Sunday TV show where he launches government initiatives, analyses topical international and national issues, and talks with Venezuelans around the country, is currently celebrating ten years of broadcasting with a four day marathon show... The 331st episode of the program started on Thursday, and will go for four days. On Thursday Chavez conducted the show in two parts, the first part from about 11am until 4pm, and the second from 8.25pm until 10.50pm... Chavez said the show would finish "late, or at night" on Sunday.

Yes, once again strong-arm tactics have led to the death of a Hamas militant and two Palestinian police.

Witnesses said several Hamas gunmen holed up in buildings had ignored calls to surrender... A security official said the individuals arrested on Saturday were involved in hiding weapons, money laundering and incitement to violence.

But it's OK ... there's no international condemnation ... and why would that be? Perhaps it has something to do with this:

The clashes erupted when security forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction, which administers the West Bank, raided a neighbourhood in the city of Qalqilya to arrest gunmen of the rival Hamas group, which rules the Gaza Strip.

Since the Israelis weren't involved, then killing Palestinians seems to be OK ... at least as far as the typical crowd who line up to voice outrage every time an Israeli blows his nose.
[Update] The story has continued to develop:

Among those killed in the raid were two top Hamas militants who had been on the run from Israel for years. An unarmed Hamas supporter and three Palestinian policemen linked to Abbas' forces also died. Tens of thousands of backers of Hamas and other militant groups marched in several places in Gaza City, protesting the raid and calling Abbas a "collaborator" with Israel. Abu Obeida, a spokesman for the Hamas military wing, threatened "tough and harsh reprisal."

Remember my previous post about past abysmal attempts to predict Solar activity? Well, it seems they haven't learned their lesson, and they're having another go.

New Solar Cycle Prediction.An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

There were competing arguments last time they tried to make a prediction, but it turns out that no one was actually correct.

The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct. "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

I'm shocked. Deeply shocked. You mean to tell me that scientists' models for predicting future climatic activity are not to be relied upon? How can this be? After all, the argument is closed: the models prove that there is going to be catastrophic global warming!

Here's what Pravda has to say on the topic:

USA shamefully betrays its only staunch ally in Middle East. "Pakistan has been a staunch ally of the United States for 60 years. The things, which the US administration are doing there now are beyond understanding.”

In what has surely got to earn the "poor word choice of the year" award, North Korea has announced a program to foster proliferation. They say they are dealing with an extermination crisis. That's right:

Brisk Research to Protect and Proliferate Animals and Plants. Much effort is channeled to protect and proliferate animals and plants in the DPRK.

Viruses mutate so damn fast that they have a major advantage in the genetic arms race against human immune systems. Is this a new virus or just a newly discovered virus? Unlike the animal / plant kingdom where you would normally assume that it is just one of the millions that haven't been cataloged yet, viruses mutate at such a fast rate there's an equal chance it's something quite new. Here's the latest salvo in a war that has been raging for millenia, and which is responsible for more loss of human life than all deaths inflicted by humans (i.e. in war, politics, etc.)

Scientists have identified a lethal new virus in Africa that causes bleeding like the dreaded Ebola virus. The so-called "Lujo" virus infected five people in Zambia and South Africa last fall. Four of them died, but a fifth survived, perhaps helped by a medicine recommended by the scientists. It's not clear how the first person became infected, but the bug comes from a family of viruses found in rodents, said Dr. Ian Lipkin, a Columbia University epidemiologist involved in the discovery. "This one is really, really aggressive" he said of the virus.

Pravda reports:

Russia creates its own version of NATO in Central Asia to be prepared for big war
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) follows the instructions from President Dmitry Medvedev, who ordered to increase the military constituent and develop the coalition force development. A strong military group, which may appear in Central Asia in the nearest future, will make the CSTO become an analogue of NATO. The following post-Soviet countries are included in the treaty: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan... [it goes on to say that] the struggle for the energy sources on the Caspian Sea and in Central Asia may lead to armed conflicts in the region.

Couldn't they come up with a better name than CSTO? "Sisto"? "Kisto"? Well, it doesn't sound as threatening as the Warsaw Pact once was, but you can bet that the Russians will keep expanding it as long as they can find "willing" new members.

I had no idea that Biden was such a brave man. Obama tries to get rid of Biden by sending him to Serbia and then Lebanon, both being places Biden has called for American military occupation, and one of which he introduced a law to actually bomb. No sooner is Biden back in America and he jabs back at Obama with a low blow.

As Vice President Biden delivered a commencement address to about 1,000 graduates of the Air Force Academy, a gust of wind knocked over his teleprompter. Biden took that opportunity to crack a joke at the expense of his boss, President Obama, who famously uses a teleprompter for all of his speeches. "What am I going to tell the president when I tell him his teleprompter is broken? What will he do then?" Biden joked.

Where the heck is Obama going to send Biden next? If he keeps going like this, I think we might just see Biden doing a Bruce Willis walk through Harlem with a certain sign around his neck.
See previous posts: Obama sends Biden to Serbia
Obama's plan to dispose of Biden almost works
Why is Biden so unpopular in Serbia?
Obama continues to try to get rid of Biden (Beirut)

There seems to have been a failure of will in the west where space is concerned. As I said before: if the west doesn't do it, then someone else will. Heinlein doubted whether there was intelligent life in Washington, but knew that Tokyo had a vision for the future. If he was alive today, he'd be saying the same thing about Beijing. Want a ticket to Mars? You might very well have to apply for a visa from the Chinese.

China's first Mars probe, Yinghuo-1, is expected to be launched in the second half of this year, an official of the Shanghai Academy of Space flight Technology (SAST) said Thursday... Yinghuo-1 would go into Mars orbit in 2010 after a 10-month, 380-million-kilometer journey.

I've made reference to the great changes in China in the last handful of years, and I usually characterize it like this: China isn't even pretending to be communist any more. No doubt there'll be more posts about things like this in the future, but here's an opening salvo:
Back in late 2007 the Chinese government decided to re-institute three public holidays that had been eradicated by the communists. The Qingming or tomb-sweeping festival (for honoring ancestors) is back, the Mid-Autumn festival is back, and the Dragon Boat festival is back. All of these have religious connotations, and were regarded as cultural ills to be eradicated in the Maoist era.

Picture: the Dragon Boat Festival isn't just about boat races. Tradition says that the water festival is to commemorate Qu Yuan who, during the Warring States Period (476-221BC), drowned himself to protest against corruption. In the picture we see a ceremony for Qu Yuan being performed. Yes, this is indeed the Peoples Republic of China. This particular ceremony took place in Wuhan in central China, but there were others like it across China.

Today (May 28th) is the Dragon Boat Festival. In places like Hong Kong and Taiwan it's always been observed, and the 2008 celebration in China was a bit more low-key because people hadn't really quite got into the swing of things yet. Second time around (since it was re-established) it's made a huge splash across China (pardon the pun). I want to highlight certain important elements of Xinhua's coverage of the festival, bearing in mind that Xinhua is a Chinese government news organ. Firstly, let's look at the headline:

Dragon Boat Festival observed nationwide with traditions back

The story goes on to open like this:

Zhang Xuanqi got up Thursday morning and fastened a small hand-made scent bag on his shirt. This kind of adornment has been a must for him on this special day every year since his childhood. "Inside the bag is cinnabar that can keep away evils," said Zhang, a middle school student in Quwo County, Shanxi Province.

This kind of approving commentary on a "superstitious" practice would be unthinkable even a few years ago.

this year, folk customs for this event have been reviving among both the old and young... To wear small bags, usually with cinnabar, medicinal herbs or aromatic materials inside, is one of the traditions.

"The festival helps spread the traditional culture and also enriched residents' life," said Sheng Guirong, a Yanqing government public relations official.

"It is a proper time to restore the traditional festivals and let them go into our modernized life," said Chen Jianxian, a China Folklore Society member.

Chen Peiai, a professor of Xiamen University, said, "We should not simply regard the three newly added national festivals as ordinary ones. Rather we should pay more attention to their historical and culture values."

I don't know that much more commentary is required from me: just note the official approval and adoring coverage from state media. I think the only thing that needs to be added is that this is not simply a state organized thing. In fact, it would be more accurate to view these as a popular movement that the government has simply recognized as having value to fill the spiritual vacuum left by the calcification of Maoist Marxism. Xinhua even describes the move to bring back the traditional festivals as being

in response to public calls, [and this] has been believed helpful to revive traditional culture in the modernizing nation.

[Update] Here's another image, showing children reciting a poem by Qu Yuan

[Update] Lots more pictures at Xinhua's Chinese language website. Here's one. Follow this link for more.
For those who can't read Chinese but want to look at all the pictures:
is the button for "back page"
is the button for "next page"

I don't know much about Charles Bolden, Obama's new pick for NASA, so I won't make any comment about the merits (or otherwise) of this choice, except to say that I like the fact that he was a marine. I did find the following interesting, which I learned from a USC US-China Institute mailout (Bolden is a USC alum):

He’s been a supporter of the US-China Institute since its inception and for several years he’s worked with his counterparts in China on a wide variety of topics, including space medicine. Three years ago, Gen. Bolden told a Senate subcommittee that he thought “international engagement and cooperation in a common goal of furthering our understanding of this universe” was “one of the greatest benefits of human space exploration.” He argued that cooperation with Russia had yielded major benefits and that “[w]e have an opportunity to forge the same kind of alliance with the people of China…. As is a common practice in our military, peaceful engagement with potential adversaries frequently makes them long-term partners in pursuit of the common goal of international peace and stability.”

Is this a good idea? I don't know, but if it can further the quest for the human race to get into space (as opposed to our current "just visiting" status) then I'm all for it. Despite what I said in an earlier post, I'm more interested in seeing the human race conquer this final frontier than I am in seeing any one particular power or culture make the leap.

The recent nuclear and missile tests conducted by North Korea jeopardize continuing global efforts to achieve nuclear disarmament, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned.

Ya think?

In other news, sun rises in east. Or does it? It turns out it only does this twice a year! OK ... let's try another one. Does a bear crap in the woods? I think I'm safe on that one. Unless you're talking about a Polar Bear I guess. OK then ... is the Pope Catholic? Damn, you can even find someone who questions that! OK ... is Obama's presidency going to be bad for the US? Finally... a safe one.